Indian economy: Doubts of a naive, ignorant village man!

I have been a financial journalist from 1993, but still I do not understand the jargon in economy. I am more confused about Indian economy and Indian rupee – reason is simple: there is no transparency. We go by fact and figures provided by government, which is, of course, not correct.

Going by current trend, you don’t need to be an expert economist to predict that India’s GDP growth could decline to 3.5 percent for this fiscal year ending in March 2014.

The Prime Minister and Finance Minister are blaming global factors. I really don’t understand why do they always blame others?

I do not understand – how come inconsistent policy-making, corruption scandals and poor infrastructure are not at all factors for economic failures?

Is it just an opposition allegation that elections still a few months away so that we (Indians) are not going to get the sort of reforms that the country needs?

I also didn’t know that huge increase in food, fertilizer and petroleum subsidies that will NOT result in increased fiscal deficit. So, the policies of the election-bound government will NOT affect fiscal deficit. It is all bull @$%!, our rulers would say.

So externals like decision of Feds in USA, Global Warming in Antarctica, Nelson Mandela’s ill-health, the colour of the inner-wear used by Syrian Primer etc and raising Hindutva inside the country create economic chaos, according to our PM and FM.

And FM assures us “Please wait, you are in the queue while I set right the economy”
And PM says: “All is well, all is well” And even Rahul Gandhi declared that India will be OK, wait till he comes! What else we need to be in the heaven?

In Indian villages, leaders in the ruling party are posing very intelligent political questions: “Why is everyone saying Indian Rupee is falling when it has gone up from 48 to 68?” The villagers (who get some Indian rupee to attend the rally/meeting) applause: “clap, clap and clap”

Dimwit me – I don’t understand why non-productive services like telecom come under GDP? When a teenager sends a text message, our GDP expands. That means for every one rupee that you spend on these (“I love you” “I love you too” and “I love you three”) SMSs, Indian government will be printing one rupee currency.

We all know that only 15% of the government’s anti-poverty funds reached the poor. But our Ministers have not even heard about it. They don’t know that the remaining 85% would go to the pockets of politicians + bureaucrats + pimps mafia. The mathematics of 15% is true on every social activities of the government of India.

Thanks god, they are so-intelligent that they know how to cope-up with deficit. Print more currency notes. Even an illiterate milk maid in a remote village would tell you that over-supply cuts down demand. But our PM and FM do not think that the over-printing of more and more currency notes would pull down rupee demand. They are intelligent and educated. So the milkmaid is being irrational.

The economic advisory committee of the government has not heard about China’s boom, where manufacturing accounted for about 34 percent of China’s economy. In India, it is around 14 percent. Only ignorant people like me would think like this: “India can still become a manufacturing powerhouse, if it makes major upgrades to its roads, ports and power systems and reforms its labor laws and business regulations.” Thanks god again, we have great PM and FM.

But even a beggar in the street knows that elections increase pressures to spend and delay strict measures. He might say that India’s weakness and turbulence may persist for some time yet.

But our PM and FM would ask: “Oh really?” And they pooh-pooh the beggar. So Ignoramus !

However, in this country honest, taxpaying citizen is penalized. But those filthy-rich and frauds that never ever care for law in the country can easily get away with the wealth when they bargain with the government showing the vote bank that they own. But we can’t blame it on PM and FM – they are trying to squeeze maximum out of taxpaying citizen. They are very broad-minded people to spare the black money holders! (They are minorities, right?) What swiss bank? Tall lies!

Yes – India is being prime- ministered by a world-renowned economist. To support him we have excellent finance minister. And there are lots of eminent economists to guide them. They have very important task: “Find the reasons from abroad as to why Indian economy is shrinking” And they even work overtime to visit foreign countries with all their parivars to find reasons for downfall of Indian economy. They might go to extend of visiting Mars to find out why farmers in India are committing suicide! The government’s concern about Indian economy gives me goose bumps!

Reflect on this: “A developed country isn’t a place where the poor have cars. It’s where the rich use public transportation.” – Gustavo Petro, Mayor of Bogota.

PS: My best friend Ajit Menon recently commented: “If Indian Rupee value falls any further, the Pakistanis will stop printing it. It will not be economically viable anymore for them.” That’s true. Now Pakistan can blame on India for destroying their cottage industry.

Udaylal Pai

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